Environmental Scan 2004 -Macedon, Mitchell, Murrindindi

Wed, Apr 7, 2004; by Bill Coppinger.

Welcome to the 2004 edition of the Central Ranges Local Learning and Employment Network's environmental scan for the communities within the Macedon Ranges, Mitchell
and Murrindindi Shires.

We commissioned The National Institute of Economic and Industry Research [NIEIR] to complete what we believe to be the most detailed report of its kind to be completed in this region in the last 10 years.

Download Environmental Scan 2004 [809Kb]

As the Minister for Education and Training said when she first launched the Local Learning
and Employment Networks,

"LLEN's are a new way of bringing together the expertise and experience of local education providers.. for young people to reap rewards in our society they must have access to pathways that will take them from school to further education, training and employment."

When is enough information enough?

The Board of the Central Ranges LLEN believes access to accurate and up-to-date information about our communities and the opportunities and barriers we face is central to achieving our goal of leading and supporting the development of local, sustainable and meaningful partnerships in education and training that will lead to genuine opportunities for young people as well as directly supporting the needs of industries, companies or small to medium
enterprises important to local or regional prosperity.

The communities across the three local government areas we serve have unique needs and strengths, yet as our research shows, some similar challenges. This report not only provides a wonderful insight in to the opportunities and barriers facing our communities, but gives all of us, a very detailed, independent and local view that is easily and openly shared with all.

In fact our first edition in 2002/2003 was distributed to over 5000 individuals, groups and organizations across the LLEN area.

This update, including census data up to and including 2001, has now been circulated to over an additional 1,500 individuals, groups andorganizations across the LLEN area.

This is perhaps one of the greatest values of the Local Learning and Employment Network.

The ability to work with all the stakeholders in our communities, focussing on improving the outcomes for young people, yet doing so in an independent, local way.

On behalf of the Board of Directors and the 105 members of the Central Ranges LLEN, we commend this report to you, your organisation and the communities we work to support.

 

Robert Hine			Bill Coppinger
Chairperson			Chief Executive Officer
April 2004			April 2004

 

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In an environmental scan of this type it is important to provide a detailed picture of the circumstances of youth within each region. The difficulties of determining the labour force status for a small area are immense, due to problems of consistency and geographical classification.

The results of the modelling procedure are presented in Tables 2.1 through to 2.7. The results are derived from the 2001 Census, 2003 Centrelink recipient data and 2003 ABS labour force survey. In order to determine the likelihood of a particular age group attending school, receiving benefits or attaining work, National Economics uses micro simulation methods. The micro-simulation procedure that is used is based on the 1998-99 ABS Household Expenditure Survey (HES) and in-house modelling that enables the general results of the survey to be applied at the local area. By taking account of the characteristics of the local population of the individual regions, the behavioural characteristics witnessed in the HES can be modified to mimic the behaviour of residents in the area of interest.

[Source: Environmental Scan Pge 5, 2004]

An example of the Labour force Modelling for young people is presented here.

Mitchell North.

Total Regional Benchmarks

The objective is to use the available data to produce meaningful benchmarks for comparison of small economies.

The economic, demographic and environmental data is used to formulate indexes.

These indexes can be used as building blocks to understand the overall composition of a region. It is also desirable to aggregate the individual benchmarks to form an overall benchmark.

While we do not attempt to provide the entire document in HTML form here, we do hope that some of the "snapshots" of data provided will encourage you to download the full Environmental Scan.

• Regional Infrastructure
  

"The figures for both series [1996-2001] continue to highlight the degree to which internal constraints such as historical uses, underdevelopment of local infrastructure, and lack of geographically local opportunities to develop wealth and employment can retard the natural outcomes a region could experience."

• Resilience
  

The LGA of Macedon Ranges has high resilience to interest rises and income falls whereas Mitchell and Murrindindi are very low. The lowest figures are experienced in the areas with the highest new growth in housing, [EG - Wallan ] as these purchases are usually financed by debt. In the case of Macedon Ranges, the rapid rise in the average cost of housing has supported the resilience in the medium term. Also, the increasing skill profile will have tended to increase the support for debt over the medium term since people with higher skills generally have greater wealth and a more secure income stream. All the regions have remained relatively stable across the 10 year span 1991 to 2001.

• Unemployment
  

When areas face a high level of short-term unemployment coupled with a high degree of non-job ready, the households face a high level of employment stress. Table 3.5 highlights an LGA such as Mitchell as having 9.9 per cent of its population aged 18-65 being non-job ready.

This gives both regions an Australia-wide rating of 51 out of 100 for 2001. When we consider that Mitchell also had a reported unemployment rate of over 5 per cent in 2001, the level of dependency of the LGA on government supported income is suddenly high.

• Wealth
  

Each of the three regions have seen a decline in their rating since 1991 although all perform above average, in particular Macedon Ranges. However, as table 3.9 shows, nominal wealth has increased markedly since 1991. The reason for the drop in ratings is due to the fact that other regions have gained wealth at a faster rate than the Central Ranges regions.

• Skills

When a region is slow to adapt to production processes that utilise the more high skilled occupations, this fall in low skilled employment can come at great social cost. Natural aging of the workforce is inclined to move the lower skilled, who on average are older, out of the workforce at an earlier than anticipated age. For the younger low skilled, this can mark the beginning of long-term unemployment.

• Macedon Ranges, Mitchell and Murrindindi have improved substantially since 1991, along with all regions throughout Australia.These regions are subject to strong forces of skill change with 30 per cent of the working age population having low skilled or clerical positions in Mitchell. This presents a particular concern to these LGAs as it is those lower income positions that are most at risk from technological change. The challenge is to manage these risks.



• For instance, a household that has moderately paid but low skilled positions is far less likely to invest long term in the local community if they cannot be sure of employment in that area in the future. On the other hand, high skilled persons living in households in Macedon Ranges, Mitchell and Murrindindi can more readily access risk by developing small business opportunities, increasing specific skills through further education, or by investing heavily in housing, comfortable with future income prospects.



• Macedon Ranges and Murrindindi have a relatively high skills base while Mitchell does not. Both these regions score well above average. Mitchell has fallen slightly since 1991 to now be in the lowest quartile.

• Knowledge Driven Growth Potential
  

The results for Macedon Ranges and Mitchell are low with scores of 39 and 28 respectively for 2001. Murrindindi one the other hand has performed above average with a score of 68 in 2001, improving from 58 in 1991. The other 2 regions have remained relatively stable over the 10 year period.

Combining the occupational information identified in the three indicators used so far identifies a clear trend in Macedon Ranges, Mitchell and Murrindindi. This trend is that the skill base of residents is reasonably stable relative to the other regions in Australia. If skill development forms an essential component of economic development, then the regions are adequately served although Mitchell scores well below average for most of these indicators. It is important to direct this force to provide local employment to young people.

• Labour Utilisation
  

The three regions perform slightly below average but have experienced a negative trend since 1991. The regions all have similar utilisation rates of about 60 percent, however these have fallen from 65 and 64.4 for Mitchell and Macedon Ranges while Murrindindi fell from 61.4.

The casualisation of the workforce is clearly of concern to all these regions.

BENCHMARKS

Statistical techniques are used to combine the independent information contained in each of
the constituent indicators within each dimension to arrive at an overall benchmark.

[Source: Environmental Scan Pge 40, 2004]

Macedon Ranges

For the household dimension, Macedon Ranges performs above average overall although since 1991, has deteriorated slowly.

• Workforce
  • The workforce in the region is relatively well positioned with a low proportion of the population incapable of participating in the workforce. Of concern is the low scores for labour utilisation indicating that part-time and casualisation of the workforce appears to have occurred and could be a large issue in the future.
    
• Finance
  • The households in the region are relatively wealthy but have quite high debt levels and as such can be sensitive to interest rises and income falls. The household income is moderate as is the employment growth. These issues have not changed since the previous report however a continued rise in debt is of concern

• Demographics
  • Despite high population growth, the population is aging, and the region has below adequate services for the aged. The region is capable of increasing its income and employment but these rates of growth could be low relative to other regions in Australia.

Mitchell Shire

For the household dimension, Mitchell performs just below average. The trend is however encouraging; after a drop from 1991 to 1996, the region has increased and is now higher than the 1991 rating.

• Workforce
  • Similar to Macedon Ranges in that the region is working in jobs in growth industries as well as having a low proportion of the population incapable of participating in the workforce. Also like Macedon Ranges, a major concern is the casualisation of the workforce and an average skills base.

• Finance
  • Reasonable household wealth but exceptionally high debt resulting in low resilience to interest rises and income falls. Household income is mid-stream relative to Australia but high debt may indicate a number of households over-extending. Also of major concern is that the region has a low ability to turn around this current trend.

• Demographics
• Relatively high population growth although like Macedon Ranges, an aging population is a concern. Also of concern is the low provision of old aged services. Future prosperity is possible despite the likelihood of low growth in terms of employment and income.
  

Murrindindi

For the household dimension, Murrindindi performs only moderately.

• Workforce
  • Similar to the other 2 regions, the proportion of those incapable of participating in the workforce is moderate while the jobs people in the region are working in are growth industries. However, casualisation of the workforce is a major issue with a number of people employed in part-time and casual work

• Finance
  • High wealth in the region is off-set by high debt burden and a high sensitivity to interest rises and income falls.

• Demographics
  • Average population growth relative to other Australian regions as well as an aging population with low aged care services. Moderate prosperity potential although growth in income and employment is below the national average. Like the other regions, it will be difficult for the region to raise the growth prospects.
    

INDUSTRY

Macedon Ranges

• Major industry growth in terms of employment expected in business services and other services.

Mitchell

• Major industry growth in terms of employment expected in electricity, gas and water and wholesale.

Murrindindi

• Major industry growth in terms of employment expected in other services and government and defence.

For the industry dimension, all 3 regions perform poorly overall.

Employment

• The ability of local industries to provide jobs to residents is low, however local industries are in a good position to improve as a result of national growth.

• Retail spending in the region is low, indicating that residents travel to other regions to do their shopping.

• The skills in the region are adequate (just above the national average). The region has sufficient skilled labour to interact in the growth industries of the future.

Output

• Overall output in the region is relatively low. This indicates a relatively low monetary value for the region.

Macedon

• Education

Above average number of residents undertaking further study in University or Tafe.

• Commercial Infrastructure

High rating for lifestyle choice with above average entertainment, cultural and recreation industries. Low commercial and community construction.

• Skills

Average scores for both low and high skilled workers. The region has a reasonable skills base to build though.

Community Welfare ? Average standard of health and welfare in the region although an aging population could stretch current amenities.

Mitchell

• Education

Slightly below average number of residents undertaking further study in University or Tafe.

• Commercial Infrastructure

High rating for lifestyle choice with above average entertainment, cultural and recreation industries. Low commercial and community construction.

• Skills

One of the major concerns for the region, very low skills in the region indicating a low potential to stimulate local prosperity as well as low potential participation in the information economy.

• Community Welfare

Average standard of health and welfare in the region. Again aging is a concern.

Murrindindi

• Education

Slightly below average number of residents undertaking further study in University or Tafe.

• Commercial Infrastructure

High rating for lifestyle choice with above average entertainment, cultural and recreation industries. Low commercial and community construction.

• Skills

Average skills in the region that has the potential to stimulate local prosperity as well as potential to participate in the information technology.

• Community Welfare

Average standard of health and welfare in the region. Like the other 2 regions, an aging population is of concern.

EMPLOYMENT by INDUSTRY

• State total youth jobs increased from 328,292 to 342,882 in between the two census periods of 1996 and 2001, a 0.9 per cent per annum rise.

 

• The major youth employment industries are retail, manufacturing, property and business services and Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants. All these industries have increased in terms of percentage share of youth employment except for manufacturing which has fallen significantly statewide.

Examples of data include:

• Macedon Ranges -Romsey - additional 127 youth jobs in 2001 compared to 1996. Largest industries for youth employment in the region include retail trade, manufacturing and construction. All have these have grown since 1996, further defining their importance.

 

• Murrindindi - West -additional 80 youth jobs in 2001 compared to 1996. Retail, Construction and Manufacturing are the three major youth employers. Retail and construction have grown since 1996 while Manufacturing fell significantly.

 

• Mitchell - South - additional 235 youth jobs in 2001 compared to 1996. The four major youth employer industries in the region are Retail, Manufacturing, Construction and Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants. Retail and Construction have grown moderately since 1996 while there has been a large rise in Accommodation, Cafes and Restaurants employment. Like most regions, manufacturing employment has fallen significantly.
  

EMPLOYMENT by OCCUPATION

• The seven SLA's in the Central LLEN region all have similar profiles in terms of employment by occupation. The 4 major occupations for youth are Tradespersons, elementary and intermediate clerical and labourers. For the Murrindindi and Mitchell regions, intermediate production occupations are also significant. Not surprisingly, the higher skilled occupations like managers and administrators and professionals are not the types of occupations youth in the region are employed in.
  
  

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Prepared by the
National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, trading as National Economics.
ABN: 72 006 234 626
416 Queens Parade, Clifton Hill, Victoria 3068
Telephone: (03) 9488 8444; Facsimile: (03) 9482 3262
Email: admin@nieir.com.au

in conjuction with

Central Ranges Local Learning and Employment Network
PO Box 765, Seymour, Victoria 3660.
Telephone 5787 2011
www.centralrangesllen.org.au
March 2004

While the National Institute endeavours to provide reliable forecasts and believes the material
is accurate, it will not be liable for any claim by any party acting on such information.

 

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License.